Research by Mills Shelving
Mills Shelving analysed Australian retail data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and Australia Post to identify patterns not immediately visible in the headline figures.
The report examines nominal output per worker, industry performance per active business, quarterly operating conditions and ecommerce expenditure per participating household. Published statistics remain attributed to their original providers.
The per-worker, per-business, cross-indicator and per-household estimates identified as Mills Shelving Original Analysis were calculated from those figures using the methodology explained in this report.
| Derived finding | Result |
|---|---|
| Nominal industry value added per retail worker | Increased approximately 3.8% |
| Nominal retail EBITDA per worker | Increased approximately 4.9% |
| Retail versus overall business growth | Retail growth was 3 percentage points lower |
| Retail income per active business | Approximately $4.25 million in 2024–25 |
| Retail EBITDA per active business | Approximately $339,200 in 2024–25 |
| June 2026 profit–sales movement gap | 5.6 percentage points |
| Online expenditure per participating household | Estimated at $8,429 in 2025 |
The per-worker figures are nominal and have not been adjusted for inflation. The June 2026 movement gap compares a current-price profit measure with a chain-volume sales measure; it shows that the indicators moved in opposite directions but is not a profit margin or like-for-like financial ratio.
Australian retail generated more income, industry value added and EBITDA in 2024–25 despite employing fewer people.
According to the ABS Australian Industry 2024–25 figures, retail employment fell from approximately 1.502 million to 1.494 million, a decline of 0.5%. Over the same period:
These percentage movements were published by the ABS and are presented here as the source data for Mills Shelving’s calculations.
Mills Shelving Original Analysis
Mills Shelving divided annual retail industry value added and EBITDA by employment for each reporting year.
| Derived metric | 2023–24 | 2024–25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Industry value added per worker | $82,818 | $85,962 | +3.8% |
| EBITDA per worker | $33,863 | $35,527 | +4.9% |
Mills Shelving calculated that nominal industry value added per retail worker increased approximately 3.8%, while EBITDA per worker increased approximately 4.9% in 2024–25. This indicates that the industry generated more nominal economic value and EBITDA for each worker despite employing fewer people.
These figures are expressed in current prices and have not been adjusted for inflation. They should not be interpreted as measures of inflation-adjusted labour productivity.
Australia’s retail business population showed almost no growth in 2025–26. The number of actively trading retail businesses increased by 0.1%, while the total Australian business population grew by 3.1%.
Mills Shelving calculated that retail business growth was therefore 3 percentage points below the national rate.
The result followed a contraction in the previous year. The retail business population declined by 0.4% in 2024–25, falling from 156,785 to 156,169 actively trading businesses. The underlying ABS data recorded 24,222 retail business entries and 24,838 exits, a net decline of 616 businesses.
What Did Each Active Retail Business Support?
To examine the industry beyond its business count, Mills Shelving combined the average number of active retail businesses during 2024–25 with matching retail income, EBITDA and employment figures.
The average business count was calculated as follows:
(156,785 + 156,169) ÷ 2 = 156,477
Mills Shelving Original Analysis
| Derived measure | 2024–25 result |
|---|---|
| Income per active retail business | Approximately $4.25 million |
| EBITDA per active retail business | Approximately $339,200 |
| Workers per active retail business | Approximately 9.5 |
The calculations use the ABS retail industry totals for income, EBITDA and employment and the average 2024–25 retail business count.
Mills Shelving’s analysis indicates that retail income and EBITDA increased in 2024–25 even as business numbers and employment declined. The industry’s improved financial performance came from greater nominal output within the existing business population; not from expansion in the number of retailers or workers.
These figures are industry-wide averages, not the performance of a typical retailer. The business count also includes non-employing businesses.
Australian retail sales moved higher in the June 2026 quarter, but company profits moved sharply in the opposite direction.
The ABS quarterly retail indicators reported the following movements:
June 2026 Retail Snapshot
Sales
+0.4% ↑
Wages
+1.0% ↑
Inventories
+1.0% ↑
Company profits
−5.2% ↓
Mills Shelving Original Analysis
Mills Shelving compared the direction and size of the reported quarterly movements.
The difference between sales growth of 0.4% and the 5.2% decline in company gross operating profits was 5.6 percentage points.
Wages and inventories also grew 0.6 percentage points faster than sales during the quarter.
Mills Shelving’s analysis found a clear separation between retail activity and profitability in the June 2026 quarter. Sales increased modestly, while wages and inventories grew faster and company gross operating profits declined.
These comparisons describe differences between the reported quarterly movements. They do not establish that higher wages or inventories caused the decline in profits.
The measures are also not directly equivalent: company profits and wages are reported in current prices, while sales and inventories are chain-volume measures. The 5.6-percentage-point result should therefore be treated as a directional comparison, not a profit margin or like-for-like financial ratio.
Online retail reached a new high in 2025. Australians spent $82.6 billion online, an increase of 14%, according to Australia Post.
Participation also reached record levels:
These figures were published by Australia Post and form the inputs for the following estimate.
Mills Shelving Original Analysis
Mills Shelving divided total online expenditure by the number of participating households:
$82.6 billion ÷ 9.8 million households = $8,429
This is equivalent to approximately:
Mills Shelving estimates that Australia’s online-shopping households accounted for approximately $8,429 in ecommerce expenditure each during 2025. The result shows the scale of online spending among households that participated in ecommerce, not the spending of every Australian household.
This is a calculated estimate based on aggregate expenditure and participation figures. It is not an observed average or median household result, and individual spending will vary considerably.
Higher output is coming from the existing industry. Retail business numbers barely grew in 2025–26, following a decline the year before. Employment also fell in 2024–25, while nominal value and EBITDA per worker increased. This suggests that established retailers are supporting more economic activity without equivalent growth in business numbers or staffing.
Sales growth alone does not guarantee stronger profits. The June 2026 quarter showed sales moving higher while company gross operating profits declined. Retailers must consider the relationship between sales, labour costs, inventory and operating expenses, not sales performance in isolation.
Physical retail must work alongside a substantial ecommerce market. Online spending reached $82.6 billion in 2025, but most Australian retail expenditure still occurred outside online channels. Physical stores therefore remain commercially important while competing within an increasingly digital purchasing environment.
For retailers, the practical priority is efficiency: making better use of employees, inventory and available selling space. For Mills Shelving, the findings reinforce the importance of store layouts and shelving systems that improve product visibility, stock capacity, replenishment and the productive use of floor space.
Mills Shelving combined publicly available datasets from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and Australia Post. No surveys, proprietary client information or estimated industry datasets were used.
Data Used
The per-worker calculations use ABS Australian Industry 2024–25, including retail employment, income, industry value added and EBITDA.
The per-business calculations combine those figures with the ABS count of actively trading retail businesses for 2024–25. The 2025–26 business-growth comparison uses the subsequent ABS business-count release.
Quarterly sales, wages, inventories and company-profit movements come from ABS Business Indicators for June 2026.
The household estimate combines the total expenditure and participation figures published in the Australia Post eCommerce Report 2026.
Calculations
Per-worker measures
Industry value added per worker = Retail industry value added Retail employment
EBITDA per worker = Retail EBITDA Retail employment
Average active retail business count
Opening business count + Closing business count 2
Per-business measures
Income, EBITDA or employment ÷ Average active retail business count
Business-growth gap
3.1% overall growth − 0.1% retail growth = 3.0 percentage points
June 2026 movement gap
0.4% sales movement − (−5.2% profit movement) = 5.6 percentage points
Online expenditure per participating household
$82.6 billion ÷ 9.8 million households = $8,429
Interpretation and Limitations
Financial figures from ABS Australian Industry are reported in current prices. The per-worker results therefore measure changes in nominal value and EBITDA, not inflation-adjusted labour productivity.
Per-business results are industry-wide averages and include non-employing businesses. They should not be interpreted as the results of a typical or median retailer.
The June 2026 comparison combines current-price profit and wage measures with chain-volume sales and inventory measures. It illustrates the direction and difference between the reported movements but is not a financial ratio.
Results have been rounded for readability. Calculations were performed using the most detailed figures available before rounding.
This report uses publicly available data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and Australia Post. Mills Shelving used the following sources to complete its calculations and analysis:
